Where do parties stand in the latest polls?
One of Turkey’s most important polling companies, GENAR, has carried out a research to identify the extent to which political parties will be able to preserve their votes.
It was important to carry out this research after the April 16 referendum, because 10 percent of the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) electorate did not cast ballots. And in the event of an election, will the same people vote for the AKP or not? This had to be confirmed.
I spoke with GENAR chairman İhsan Aktaş.
I will speak about the results of the poll; but first I want to elaborate on two evaluations made by Aktaş.
1- The voting patterns in the referendum are not the same as the ones in the elections.
2- Ten percent of the AKP’s electorate did not vote on April 16. This constitutes five percent of the overall voters. When we research this group, we see that they are Kemalists, nationalists, conservatives and democrats; they represent the middle class. They vote for the AKP in order to maintain stability. But at the same time they also believe in the parliamentary system. They did not vote in the referendum because they wanted the country to be ruled by a parliamentary system, not a presidential one. These evaluations are important. The head of the ANAR polling company, Ibrahim Uslu, identified this group as urbanite and educated; those with more income and who are “white collar conservatives.” Aktaş, however, drew a different picture. But I have no intentions to enter that debate because I believe only those who are experts in public opinion should do that. I am more interested in the result. So, will this group vote for the AKP in an election?
“They vote for the AKP,” Aktaş said. He believes they will vote for the AKP in the next election and that a political prediction cannot be made according to the referendum results.
According to the study, an analysis of the ability of the major parties to preserve their own votes has revealed shocking percentages.
The AKP is seen to preserve 97.5 percent of its own votes, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) preserves 97 percent of its own votes, while the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) preserves 98 percent of its own votes.
Only the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is expected to change; it will retain 85-86 percent of its own votes. However, this shows that the MHP failed to protect 15 percent of its votes because of the emergence of the Good Party (İyi Parti), established by former MHP lawmaker Meral Akşener.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has not yet confronted Akşener.
This is part of the strategy: The AKP does not want to keep Akşener on its agenda. The public opinion research that I have does not exactly represent the current picture, because it was conducted before the establishment of the Good Party.
Therefore, I will not share it here.
Akşener has the support of hesitant voters together with those who have moved away from the MHP and the CHP. But again, it is Akşener’s performance that will determine her fate in politics.
Akşener’s party embarked on its journey with aims to become a center party, but instead emerged with a team of MHP opponents.
They have not been able to convey an image of a center party to society. Can there be a center party without the support of the Kurdish and Alevi people?
Erdoğan will not allow a void to open in the center.
It seems that Akşener will create a small wave, but Erdoğan will be the one to leave his mark on the 2019 elections