Struggle for democracy?

Is it conceivable that thousands of people could take to the streets of cities in the oil-and-gas rich Caspian region or in the strategic Persian (or Arabian) Gulf area of Iran, attack the premises of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, harass mullahs and lynch some die-hard members of the Islamist theocracy in power?

Most likely no one would have considered it possible that the premises of the shah’s army would be attacked, or that generals and officers, as well as many prominent intellectuals and academicians would be mercilessly and indiscriminately massacred, and 2,500 years of uninterrupted Iranian monarchy would be taken over by the mullahs.

The Iranian Islamic revolution was not designed by the Americans. What roles did European powers, particularly France, where the Ayatollah Khomeini was last in exile, play? Probably no significant role, other than some limited logistical assistance. If Iranians were to rebel against the Islamic Republic now, would that be a product of American, or let’s say Western, manipulation? Most probably. Would Turkey be part of it? Initially, most likely the Turkish government would be rather shy. It might even issue statements condemning the bad intentions of the West. It might even ask “What is NATO’s place in Iran?” But eventually? It would not take more than few weeks for Turkey to participate in any concerted Western effort to install in Iran a regime of its liking and establish a system that would put Iran’s natural riches freely on offer. The world would call that a struggle for democracy in Iran.

The sons of the new revolution would lynch the sons of the previous revolution. Heads would roll in the streets. Huge work machines would be used as gibbets from which to hang the dangerous enemies of the new regime.

This is of course nothing but speculation. Could such a development take place? Well, if a fire starts, and rather than trying to contain it everyone pours, with “humanitarian considerations,” of course, oil on it, obviously sooner or later the fire will engulf the entire neighborhood. Not only the cottage across the road, but the entire area will be reduced to ashes.

An effort by Turkish separatists was foiled by security forces this week. The operation continues. What was the goal? The gang was trying to present the idea to the world that like in Syria, Egypt and Libya there was some sort of “spring” in Turkey, and a town had established a “popular government.” Operations have been ongoing in Şemdinli for the past 10 days. What does it mean? The gang has heavy weapons. How did they obtain those weapons? And how did they bring them into the heart of a town?

But Turkey is concerned with the apparent Kurdish governance of some towns in northern Syria. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu went to Arbil, trying to remind the government there of the possible “consequences” of such developments for Iraqi and Syrian Kurds. Yet, while Turkey is nursing the Syrian National Council, establishing refugee camps (and there are allegations that even further assistance will be offered), and even paying pocket money to refugees, it is angry with the Kurds for establishing a national council.

Shall we decide what kind of democrats are we? Do we support “popular movements” that aim to take down tyrants and install democratic governments? Or are we now afraid that the fire may spill over to our house?