Early election in November or spring

The Kurdish issue-focused Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) will have four cabinet ministries, and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will have four ministries, in the case that a coalition is not formed and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan makes the decision of an early election.

In order to exclude the HDP from such a government, the early election decision will be made by the parliament, not by President Erdoğan: thus, prioritizing the option of “AKP minority government.” For the vote of confidence of the government, 276 votes are not necessary; a simple majority of those who are present in the session is enough for a vote of confidence for the government. 

For instance, if some opposition deputies do not attend the vote of confidence session, then the AKP minority government would be able to receive a vote of confidence with the vote of the majority, which would remain in power until the elections.

Apart from these, the picture of today is that the probability of an AKP-Republican People’s Party (CHP) coalition is weakening and the chance of an early election is strengthening. According to scenarios spoken in the AKP corridors, the date of the early election is Nov. 22. 

According to another scenario, it has an even further date: spring. In the project of weakening the HDP in the political battle against terror, the AKP and MHP are cooperating. Derived from these complicated corridor information, the MHP is now opting for armed struggle against terror and they are happy with the policy conducted against the HDP. It is ready to support the AKP minority government from the outside. This is the base of the “early elections postponed to spring” scenario. The effort is to finish terror until that date and try to push the HDP under the election threshold. 

Early election survey 

What will change in an election in November versus spring? Adil Gür from A&G Consultancy has last week’s data. It reflects the situation before bombs were dropped on ISIL and the PKK, before terror climbed.

The AKP has 43 to 44 percent of the votes and the CHP has 26 to 27 percent, both of them increasing a little. The MHP has 12- 13 percent and the HDP has 12 percent, both of them slightly decreasing. Will these results make a one-party government? 

Gür said, “In the early elections, it will again be a four-party parliament. A one-party government possibility depends on circumstances. A one-party government may not come out with 44 percent, but with 42.5 percent. It depends on who gets the last seat in contingencies.”

This means, according to Gür, “There could again be a coalition in the early elections but this time, the reservations of political parties to enter a coalition and their conditions would be less; in other words, a coalition would be more possible then.”

These figures may change with the climb of terror this week, Gür said. 

Goodbye to art with a masjid 

Rumelihisarı in Istanbul is a historic venue that has served the art scene of this city for 50 years with plays and concerts. The Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality last year decided to build a masjid to Rumelihisarı, which does not have a neighborhood or a conglomeration. This is like a blow to culture and arts. This masjid is now complete. From now on, it is very difficult to stage plays or concerts at Rumelihisarı. The masjid obstructs them. 

Whereas, there is already a masjid a bit further from Rumelihisarı. Arts and culture are suffering under the AKP rule because of an outdated ideological fixation.