Who won and who lost in figures

Success is substituted by nothing else in life. Based on this, we should acknowledge that the absolute winner of the 2014 local elections is the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

AK Party, despite all the negativities surrounding it, especially such as the corruption files that have caused four cabinet ministers to resign and the eavesdropping records circulating, has achieved an easy majority in the ballot box, once more proving that it is the principal political actor of the country.

However, we should also focus on the fact that compared to the 2011 general elections, it has lost more than 2 million voters.

A short look at the AK Party election performance over the past 12 years might give us an idea. Even though local elections have separate dynamics, when taken into consideration that the elections held the other day were experienced almost as a referendum, there is no harm in evaluating both categories together.

The AK Party, in the first elections it participated in, the 2002 general elections, won 10,808,000 votes to reach 34.28 percent. Almost one and a half years later, in the local elections in 2004, in the city council votes, the AK Party raised its votes to 13,447,000 to make its ratio 41.67 percent.

In the 2007 elections, this party obtained 16,327,000 votes with 46.58 percent. However, two years later, the AK Party in the 2009 local elections received 15,353,000 votes dropping its vote percentage to 38.39 percent.

In the 2011 general elections, the AK Party went up to 49.83 percent with 21,399,000 votes. These figures have been the highest performance of the ruling party at the ballot box.

Meanwhile, we have seen the number of total voters in 2002 was 41,407,000 and this figure went up to 52,806,000 in 2011. While the number of total voters increased by over 11 million in nine years, the AK Party gained a significant section of this increase as its voters in the elections and it was also successful in transforming the majority of the votes of the central right parties, such as the True Path Party (DYP) and Motherland Party (ANAP) into its own body.

The official results of the elections have not been released by the Supreme Election Board; however approximate results compiled by news agencies show the main tendencies. 

Based on these, Cihan News Agency showed the AK Party obtained 43.3 percent of the city council votes countrywide. This rate was 43.6 percent according to Anadolu Agency. 

Anadolu gave the figure of those who voted for the ruling party as 19,111,000.

The interesting aspect here is despite the overall success of the AK Party in the elections, it has fallen almost 6.5 points below its 2011 election results. (From 49.8 percent to 43.3 percent) The number of voters has gone back from 21.4 million to 19 million.

The conclusion we can draw from this is: despite everything, a series of factors including the important role played by the corruption files have brought an apparent wear in terms of the AK Party.

Well, from the same sources, what is the situation of the Republican People’s Party (CHP)? This party obtained 19.39 percent of the vote with 6,113,000 votes in 2002. In the 2004 local elections, it stayed at 18.23 percent with 5,882,000 votes. In the 2007 general elections with 7,317,000 votes, it went up to 20.88 percent. In the 2009 local elections, 9,229,000 voters voted for the CHP for city councils at an overall rate of 23.8 percent. In the 2011 elections, the CHP reached 25.98 percent with 11,155,000 votes.

According to Anadolu Agency, in city council counts, the CHP has 11,270,000 votes reaching 25.7 percent. We can say the CHP remained the same in this situation.

Looking at the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) from the same source, the MHP has gained 8.36 percent of the votes with 2,635,000 votes in 2002 general elections. In the 2004 local elections, it has 10.45 percent with 3,372,000 votes. In the 2007 general elections, the MHP’s votes reached 5 million corresponding to 14.27 percent. In the 2009 local elections, they gained 6,386,000 votes to reach 15.97 percent. In the 2011 general elections, they have 5,585,000 votes to make 13.01 percent.

According to unofficial results, the MHP gained 7,718,000 votes, which correspond to 17.6 percent of the overall vote.

No matter how you look at it, the MHP has gained a clear 2 million plus votes. In this case, we can say those voters who broke away from the AK Party leaned toward the MHP to a great extent. In any case, the winner of these elections in terms of rates is the MHP.