Turkey 2050

It is indeed not possible to ignore the black clouds gathering over the economy; first due to fluctuations in global financial markets that have been ongoing since May and then the Syrian crisis right next to our borders. 

Economy Minister Zafer Çağlayan is the first minister signaling the dark clouds. According to Çağlayan, there will be falls in foreign demand. 

In other words, the target of 158 billion dollars of exports that Turkey has set for itself for the year 2013 will not be met.

 According to the Economist magazine, the bill of the financial fluctuation has started to arrive. 

While the real sector, especially real estate and automotive, is postponing its investments, acquisitions and mergers have gone down. 

According to the magazine, in 2012, there were 30 billion dollars worth of acquisitions and mergers; whereas, in 2013, this figure for the first six months is around 10 billion dollars. 

Another bitter outcome, again in the first six months, is about companies that have recorded losses because of the increase in the dollar. 

While the number of companies recording losses in the first six months of 2012 was 99, this year the figure has increased to 148 in the first six months. 

Last week, a chat with a person who maintained his optimism as well as his belief in the Turkish economy was very refreshing. 

If you ask me who this optimist person is, I will immediately tell you that he is the CEO of PwC Turkey, Haluk Yalçın. PwC is a leading auditing, advisory, tax and financial law firm. 

Yalçın who works with 1,300 people at PwC Turkey office took the flag last December from my dear friend Cansen Başaran Symes. Haluk Yalçın had been the leader of risk management for long years in the company. Yalçın has this analysis about foreign investors: 

“Those investors who want to come to Turkey for short term investments indeed take note of sudden fluctuations… It is possible for them to postpone their decisions. However, in medium and long terms, for the permanent investor, Turkey is a country, for them, that has an important potential for the future.”

As a proof of his analysis, Haluk Yalçın shows me the report about the PwC’s 2050 projection. 

According to this report, Turkey rises to the world’s 12th economy when the year is 2030. 

In the year 2050, it maintains its 12th place. 

According to Yalçın, the biggest factor that would facilitate the medium and long term investor’s decision is the Turkish Commercial Code. 

The Turkish Commercial Code which corresponds to more transparency in the economic system is not yet implemented fully.

He said, “When it is fully implemented, there is no doubt that interest in Turkey will increase.” 

As a matter of fact, leaders of global companies frequently visit Turkey and are affected by the geographic advantages of Turkey, he said. 

Well, which sectors are they interested in? 

Haluk Yalçın said, “Communication, telecommunication, banking, retail and health.” 

Meanwhile, PwC Turkey plans to increase the number of its employees from 1,300 to 3,000 in the coming term.

He said, “Turkey is in 40th place in the world of PwC. When it is the 12th economy in the world, it will go up to the 20th place. That means we also need to run to keep pace with Turkey.” 

In the PwC 2050 report, there is good news for Turkey but bad news for the United States. Because, as of 2030, the US will lose its title of biggest economy in the world to China.