A fifth party in parliament: Joke or prophesy?

Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli has said a “fifth party” could be formed in parliament after the Nov. 1 election. So there has finally been a bit of activity in the election campaign. 

Thank God, now we have a hot topic to talk about. Did Bahçeli receive a tip-off and come up with this? Or did he make up an “imaginary scenario” in order to stir things up? 

Is it based on anything more than wishful thinking? 

Bahçeli’s words were explained for us by MHP Deputy Head Semih Yalçın, because we were not too sure what he meant. Did he mean that there would be another bottleneck with the current parties after the Nov. 1 election? Would a fifth party solve this block? Are there are examples of this from the past?

According to Yalçın, Bahçeli was forecasting that a second party would split from the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) after Nov. 1 - a breakaway party: There is an anti-Erdoğan group waiting for Davutoğlu to fail and then they will split off. 

What does Bahçeli know? What kind of information does he possess about a second party splitting off from the AK Party? Based on what specific knowledge does he have such an expectation? 

There is a news website that reports news from inside the AK Party. This site, karar.com, posted an analysis piece in response to the MHP head. It said that what Bahçeli predicted was not prophesy but rather a low-caliber joke. It’s not even funny, it’s just pathetic. 
 
“It is probably an imaginary, fabricated rumor,” the analysis stated. “There is no trace of its future likelihood or current reality. The idea of a fifth party does not represent any political reality, any future design, or any type of option worth talking about. It only represents the hopelessness of the joint opposition against the AK Party.”

It gave some past examples: “Since August 2002 [when the AK Party first came to power], several wrong analyses and predictions have been made about the party. But none has been so wrong as to liken it to the Motherland Party (ANAP). Its nature will never allow the AK Party to be like the ANAP. Let alone the possibility of a split; the AK Party’s reflex is to maintain its integrity.”

So how could such rumors emerge? “The AK Party’s opponents have not lost their hopes for erosion, chaos and division for 15 years. This wish has never come true. But the leader of the MHP is most probably using the ‘fifth party’ claim as a nerve bomb to compensate for the MHP’s loss of Tuğrul Türkeş to the AK Party.” 

So is it totally imaginary, false news? “We are talking about a political joke here. Those who are looking for a shortcut in their opposition to the AK Party have taken the joke seriously and shown their rashness.”

Is the fifth party idea a realistic political analysis of a forecast based on knowledge? Or is it an empty wish, a destructive rumor whispered with hidden intentions?   

Either Bahçeli’s prophesy does not come true, or the news site is wrong.

Do you want to bet?