Turkey’s national income per capita to decrease below $10,000

Neşe Karanfil - ANKARA

DHA photo

Turkey’s national income per capita has been forecasted to decrease below $10,000 for the next two years, projected to lower to $9,286 in 2015 and $9,364 in 2016 on the dollar-basis rather than purchasing power in the government’s new medium-term economic program. 

The national income per capita was $10,390 in 2014. 

The government aims to increase this amount above the $10,000 threshold again by 2017, according to goals outlined in the medium-term economic program, which was released on Jan. 11. 

The Turkish government has renewed its program after a short period of time, as it had already announced another just ahead of the November elections in 2015. 

According to the new program, the national income forecast was announced as $722 billion in 2015, as $736 billion in 2016, as $796 billion in 2017 and as $854 billion in 2018. 

The country’s national income was announced as $799 billion in 2014. 

Revision after a few months

The government, however, revised its national income per capita from dollar terms to one that was income-based on purchasing power parity, after dramatic losses in the Turkish Lira’s value against the dollar during its prior program published in the Official Gazette on Oct. 11, 2015. 

With the change, the government’s national income per capita target rose to $19,506 from the previous target of $10,936, which was set on the dollar basis formula. 

If this change had not been made, the country’s national income per capita would have decreased below $10,000 during the last year as well, with a loss of around 25 percent in the lira’s value to the dollar. 

For 2016, the per capita income was expected to reach $20,313, while it is expected to rise to $21,377 in 2017 and $22,680 in 2018, according to the government’s predictions. 

The country’s national income per capita rose by 37 percent in 2008 after a change in the calculation formula.  

Sharp effects of the rise in the dollar are quite visible in the new program, as the mentioned forecasts, which are based on the lira, are higher than the previous years, but lower on the dollar basis. 

The economic program doesn’t include any official parity forecasts, but the government used rough estimates as it offered these estimates both in lira and dollar basis. In this vein, the dollar-lira parity was taken as 2.99 in 2016, 3.12 in 2017 and 3.24 in 2018. 

The country has raised its 2015 gross domestic product forecast to 4 percent, from the previous forecast of 3 percent, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Şimşek said, adding that the latest medium-term program aimed to boost stable and comprehensive growth in a press meeting on Jan. 11. 

The government also raised the GDP forecast for 2016 to 4.5 percent from 4 percent, adding that annual GDP expansion will reach 5 percent in both 2017 and 2018.