Turkey’s gas demand by 2030 likely to be below official forecasts: Research

LONDON - Reuters

Turkey is likely to require 25 percent less gas in 2030 than forecast by state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ as the government promotes renewable power and domestic coal use, a study showed on April 24.

An Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) report said gas demand would be no more than 55-56 billion cubic meters (bcm) a year by 2025 and 60-62 bcm/year by 2030, compared with a BOTAŞ forecast of 81 bcm/year by 2030 from 45 bcm/year in 2012.

Since 2014, growth in gas demand in Turkey has slowed dramatically after rising rapidly in the 2000s.

The slowdown was because the government was encouraging renewable energy and domestically-produced coal in a bid to cut Turkey’s $50 billion-a-year energy and mineral import bill and reduce dependence on external suppliers, the report said.

Last year, natural gas accounted for almost 26 percent of Turkey’s total primary energy supply, importing 98 percent of its needs. Efforts to reduce imports mean gas accounted for just 33 percent of power generation in 2016 from 60 percent in 2007.

Turkish gas demand declined to 46 bcm in 2016 from 48.8 bcm in 2015, its first decline since 2009, the report said.

The report said gas demand should hold steady this year, remaining at about 46 bcm, and would remain flat or edge higher in the 2020s if import prices remained low for Turkey.

Government schemes should further decrease the share of gas in the energy mix and gas would continue to be less profitable to burn than coal in the absence of carbon taxes or environmental restrictions, the report added.