Scientists discover massive fault stretching from Türkiye to Iran

ISTANBUL

A team of German scientists has identified a massive geological fault extending approximately 1,500 kilometers from southeastern Türkiye to northwestern Iran.

The discovery was made during a study on the impact of the Zagros Mountains in Iraq on the Earth’s surface over the past 20 million years.

The fault, according to researchers, has formed due to the downward pull of a remnant of the Tethys Ocean’s oceanic plate, creating substantial subsidence zones in the Earth’s crust.

Professor Renas Koshnaw from the University of Göttingen, who led the study, described the phenomenon.

“This plate continues to pull the region downward. The movement appears to become shallower toward Türkiye. The crack spreads from Türkiye to Iraq like a page being torn from a calendar.

Turkish geologist Naci Görür, who had previously warned of seismic risks in the area, elaborated on the fault’s significance.

He explained that the Bitlis-Zagros thrust belt, where the fault is located, extends from the Adıyaman region Hakkari, covering high-altitude areas such as the Cilo Mountains.

“To the south, there are provinces like Diyarbakır, Bitlis, Şanlıurfa and Mardin. This fault marks the boundary between the Arabian Plate and the complex tectonic structure of Eastern Anatolia,” he said.

“The region to the north is classified as a subduction zone, while the Arabian Plate lies to the south. The boundary between the two is the Bitlis-Zagros thrust belt, which has the potential to generate major earthquakes when activated.”

Görür emphasized that significant seismic energy has accumulated in the Bitlis-Zagros belt, partly due to the transfer of stress from the East Anatolian Fault.

“This area has stored a considerable amount of energy, making it increasingly hazardous. Cities such as Adıyaman, Hakkari, Bitlis, Diyarbakır, Mardin, Şanlıurfa and Siirt — located south of the mountain belt — are at risk of earthquakes. This is why I keep urging people: Prepare your city for an earthquake,” he cautioned.

While the exact timing of future earthquakes remains uncertain, Görür pointed out that the Feb. 6, 2023 earthquakes, which devastated southeastern Türkiye, displaced the Arabian Plate by 10 meters northward.

“This movement has further compressed the Eastern Anatolian region, increasing the stress buildup. The possibility of larger earthquakes in the future cannot be ruled out,” he warned.