Output slumps further according to a survey

Bloomberg

Output slid an annual 20.8 percent, according to the median estimate of four economists surveyed by Bloomberg, following a decline of 21.3 percent in January, the biggest drop since monthly figures began in 1986. The state-run statistics office in Ankara will announce the figures at 10 a.m. tomorrow. The contraction indicates a deepening economic decline after gross domestic product fell 6.2 percent in the last quarter of 2008, the first shrinkage in the European Union membership candidate in seven years. The Central Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate by 6.25 percentage points in the past five months, taking it to a low of 10.5 percent.

"It’s clearly going to be another bad number; exports are falling and capacity usage is very low," said Levent Durusoy, economist for Yatırım Finansman Securities in Istanbul, who expects the economy to shrink as much as 10 percent in the first quarter. "There’s no real chance of a quick recovery."

Exports fell 25 percent in February from a year earlier to $8.3 billion, and imports tumbled 48 percent to $8.4 billion, the statistics agency said March 31.

The agency will release capacity utilization data for March on Friday. Capacity usage was unchanged at the lowest in at least nine years in February as carmakers such as Tofaş Türk, Fiat’s Turkish unit, halted production, blaming a fall in orders from Turkey and the European Union.

The Central Bank will report February’s current account, the widest measure of trade in goods and services, Friday. The current-account balance was in surplus in January for the first time since 2004.

Separately, the state asset sales agency will put two electricity grids up for sale this week, restarting efforts to draw private investment into the power sector.