GÜVEN SAK

Turkey is waiting for the other shoe to drop GÜVEN SAK

Turkey is waiting for the other shoe to drop

The actual sanctions twist and turn through the corridors of Capitol Hill, but so far remain trapped within it. This strategy has weakened the Turkish-American alliance in at least three ways.

October 20 2019
Brexit is a bigger problem for the Turkish economy than Syria GÜVEN SAK

Brexit is a bigger problem for the Turkish economy than Syria

I was recently asked how badly Turkey’s military operation in Syria could affect the already troubled economy. Could this move, my inquisitor wanted to know, be the last nail in the economy’s coffin? My answer was no. I think that the highly probable no-deal Brexit at the end of October could have a more negative impact than the limited operation in northern Syria. Why? Let me explain.

October 11 2019
An Orwellian new commission for Europe GÜVEN SAK

An Orwellian new commission for Europe?

Ursula von der Leyen, president-elect of the European Commission, announced the names of her commissioners this week. I was first struck by the name of the new job dealing with migration. It’s actually called the “vice-presidency for protecting our European way of life.” I like how it specifies “our European Way of Life,” rather than say, “the European Way of Life.” The Orwellian theme continues with the new commissioner for neighborhood and enlargement: Lazslo Tocsanyi, a dutiful follower of Hungary’s Victor Orban. I hope I’m wrong, but from the looks of it, it appears that the new commission will be accepting identity politics as its core.

September 16 2019
From Emrullah Efendi to Boris Johnson GÜVEN SAK

From Emrullah Efendi to Boris Johnson

The Brexit process started like a tragedy. With Boris Johnson as the British prime minister, it has turned into a comedy. I have to confess that it is getting funnier every day to watch the things happening in Great Britain. At the same time, the job of explaining to my foreign friends what is happening in Turkey is getting easier and easier.

August 30 2019
Watching ‘New India’ from Turkey GÜVEN SAK

Watching ‘New India’ from Turkey

On Aug. 5, India revoked Article 370 of its constitution, effectively ending the special status of Kashmir, a territory that borders with Pakistan and China. To guard against an insurgency backlash, the government flooded Kashmir – already one of the most militarized places in the world - with even more military forces, put a curfew in place, and cut off its communication with the outside world. By lining up the Hindu domination of India’s sole Muslim-majority region, it has also put in danger India’s secular character, which has been the keystone of maintaining harmony among the country’s diverse people.

August 23 2019
An FTA would be a good idea, Mr. Graham GÜVEN SAK

An FTA would be a good idea, Mr. Graham

It was in the papers this week: for the first time in history, the number of $100 bills have exceeded the number of $1 bills, and apparently, 70 percent of those $100 bills are outside the United States. Why? Because people want to safeguard their hard-earned savings in climates of extreme macro policy uncertainty. Turkey is one such example, where after a brief hiatus of stability, Mr. Benjamin Franklin’s likeness is back in fashion. Why?

August 02 2019
How to make Syrians more invisible in Turkey GÜVEN SAK

How to make Syrians more invisible in Turkey

There are around 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, and nearly half of them are children. That number plateaued this past year, but we in Turkey’s big cities didn’t really feel them. In the last few months, it’s as if the visibility of Syrians has increased. This shows up in public opinion surveys, too, where people list Syrian refugees as one of the country’s top five issues. Why? I see three reasons.

July 19 2019
What Europe should know about North Cyprus GÜVEN SAK

What Europe should know about North Cyprus

Last week, Turkey saw its first current account surplus in 16 years. That would cause for celebration if it wasn’t due to the Turkish Lira’s rapid depreciation, and the deep recession we’re in. The area of constructive ambiguity in economic policymaking has absorbedly ended with the sacking of the governor of the Central Bank. Markets are now clear about the kind of institutions they are dealing with in Ankara. This, of course, will not help the recession, no matter how rapid the impending rate cut is going to be. So success stories are hard to come by these days.

July 13 2019
Lessons from Turkey’s election season GÜVEN SAK

Lessons from Turkey’s election season

Turkish politics will be on a much-appreciated break this week, as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made his way to Osaka for the G20 summit. The Istanbul rerun is over. After Japan, Erdoğan will be hosted by President Xi Jinping in Beijing, and all together, he will be away from Ankara for about 10 days. Turkey’s Parliament is also in summer recess. So this is a time when Turkey’s political class can get some distance from their routines, and maybe even begin to think ahead a little bit.

June 28 2019