Europe troubled, Turkish economy growing

The problems on the Greek side of Cyprus look as if they have been solved but additional tax on deposits has scared especially those countries in Europe that have problems in the field of banking. As can be observed in the developments in the euro-dollar parity, the uneasiness related to European economies has increased recently.

On the other hand, here in Turkey, it can be felt that domestic political tension has decreased and economic recovery has started.

National income data for the last quarter of 2012 will be announced on April 1, thus the growth figures of 2012 will become definite. Consequently, there is only a short time left for the finalization of the debate of market experts about 2012 growth rates. However, it looks like the debates about this year’s estimations, especially on the first quarter, will continue.

It was seen that external demand continued its influence on growth despite the shrinking of domestic demand toward the end of last year. About this year’s first quarter though, almost everybody agrees that the domestic demand has slightly recovered and has started contributing to growth.

However, to what extent domestic demand has contributed to growth continues to be discussed, whether it will continue to increase and the effect the recovery in domestic demand will create on economic equilibriums. We know that especially the Central Bank administration constantly repeats that the recovery in domestic demand, consequently the growth, should be moderate and should remain within the framework of the 4 percent growth target. Despite that, it can be seen that demands are increasing especially from investment banks and the business world that growth should be accelerated.

For this reason, the extent of the recovery in domestic demand will continue to be discussed from now on.
[HH] Preliminary data show recovery

Concrete data related to this year’s first quarter has not been announced yet, however, market experts reviewing preliminary data have concluded that recovery has started being felt in domestic demand and growth in the first quarter of the year.

It can be seen that in the January-February period, recovery in the automotive and white goods sectors has started, and that bank loans are also demonstrating that. Industrial production, which had fluctuations in the last quarter of 2012, has slightly increased in January; however in February it was seen that production indicators of pioneer sectors had a downward trend. However, the seasonally adjusted capacity usage rate increased both in February and in March. Also, the number of companies formed recorded an increase after 14 months in February while the rate of increase in the number of companies closed has shown a distinct slowing. In preliminary export data, too, the increase continues in the months of January and February; in official data the January imports, except for gold, are observed to have increased. Turkish manufacturing sector indicators, on the other hand, are interpreted to mean the sector may show a slight increase in February, similar to the industry production’s in January.

When the investment indicators are reviewed, again, they are interpreted as slight signs of recovery.

The most important data about the recovery in the economy is the increase in bank loans. The most recent data announced shows that it has reached 20 percent even though the economy administration wants it to stay at 15 percent.