The economic bill of the crisis between Turkey and Germany would be much costly than expected. I believe it is more accurate to see Germany not just as a country with which we have close economic relations but also an influential actor in the European Union and even in the Western Alliance
The long awaited cabinet reshuffle has finally occurred on July 19
A year has passed since the July 15, 2016, coup attempt, and we have gone through the last week in a consciously created demagogic climate
Data on May’s industrial production, announced on July 10, came in far below expectations. But it looks like the markets are not demoralized and are continuing to believe that growth figures will be high
Inflation figures for June were better than expected and annual inflation rate went down to under 11 percent. While the decline is expected to continue in July too, the possibility of annual inflation going back to a one-digit figure is also cited
Together with the expectation of a change in the cabinet, the bureaucracy in Ankara seems to have put everything on hold. One can particularly observe the rise of complaints from big private sector companies that “things have not been working in the bureaucracy for a long time.”
On one hand, there is the increase in economic fragility; on the other, there is the presidential election to be held based on the new administrative system. The government will have to decide on its economy policy amid this controversy.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be persistent, it seems, on her refugee policies despite the reactions. Efforts to advance German-Turkish relations despite the recent tension are also continuing.
Turkey’s recent inflation figures gave us all a positive surprise. However, the general consensus in the market is that it is highly likely that we saw the lowest annualized inflation rate as of the end of November for a while, and that inflation will increase from now on.
