OECD forecasts Turkish GDP growth at 3.5 percent this year

PARIS

Türkiye’s economic growth will ease to 3.5 percent in 2024 and 2.6 percent in 2025 as necessary macroeconomic stabilization policies will slow domestic demand, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said in its Economic Outlook report published on Dec. 4.

However, exports should increase on the back of an improvement in the external environment and a continued revival of international tourism, it added.

Turkish GDP growth is projected to rebound in 2026, reaching 4 percent as the effects of the stabilization policies ease, according to the Paris-based organization.

In its interim report published in September, the organization’s GDP expansion forecast to Türkiye was 3.2 percent.

The Turkish economy grew by 5.1 percent in 2023.

OECD, meanwhile, raised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.3 percent but warned of the risk of protectionist measures to spark inflation and slow the economy.

Just weeks before Donald Trump returns to the White House with pledges to slap tariffs on U.S. trading partners the OECD cautioned that "greater trade protectionism, particularly from the largest economies" poses a "downside risk" along with geopolitical tensions and high public debts.

"Increases in trade-restrictive measures could raise costs and prices, deter investment, weaken innovation and ultimately lower growth," the OECD warned in its report.

Further increases in global trade restrictions would add to import prices, raise production costs for businesses and reduce living standards for consumers, it added.

The 0.1 percentage point increase in its 2025 global growth forecast, to 3.3 percent, was primarily due to stronger U.S. growth.

Both France and Germany saw their 2025 growth forecasts cut by 0.3 percentage points, to 0.9 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, as the countries face political crises amid mounting fiscal pressure.