No big earthquake expected in Istanbul before 2045: Istanbul Technical University

KARABÜK

The big earthquake expected for Istanbul will not happen before 2045, said Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan, from Istanbul Technical University’s Department of Geophysical Engineering.

Speaking in an earthquake conference in the northern province of Karabük, Ercan said two big earthquakes are expected in the Marmara region, but they would not occur before 2045.

“We expect two big earthquakes that measure between 6.4 and 6.7, and 7.0 and 7.2 respectively. Even though some experts say they could happen anytime, there is no proof to back this up,” he said.

“Indeed, according to my research, these earthquakes should not occur before 2045,” he added.

Ercan also said ferroconcrete structures should immediately be changed into steel frame structures.

Deputy Governor Numan Tahir Şimşek, Vice Chancellor Prof. Dr. Mustafa Yaşar, Dr. Gazanfer Erbay, who is the head of the Karabük provincial branch of Turkey’s National Disaster Management Agency (AFAD), Prof. Dr. Mehmet Özalp, who is the dean of Karabük University’s Engineering Faculty, public sector representatives, non-governmental organizations and students attended the conference 

Recently, Deputy Prime Minister Recep Akdağ said 27 percent of Turkey’s population live in areas that carry the highest earthquake risk.

In November 2017, Environment and Urbanization Minister Mehmet Özhaseki also warned of the danger of “mass casualties” in the event of a strong earthquake in Istanbul.