Moody’s lifts growth forecast for Türkiye

ISTANBUL

Rating agency Moody’s has revised upwards its GDP growth forecast for the Turkish economy for 2023 from a previous 4.5 percent to 5.3 percent.

It expects the Turkish economy to expand 2 percent next year and growth rate to accelerate to 3 percent in 2024.

Moody’s forecasts that the year-on-year inflation rate will be 72.5 percent this year but decline to 50.2 percent in 2023 and further down to 42.6 percent in 2024.

“The global economy is on the verge of a downturn amid extraordinarily high levels of uncertainty amid persistent inflation, monetary policy tightening, fiscal challenges, geopolitical shifts and financial market volatility,” Moody’s said in the latest edition of its Global Macro Outlook report.

Global growth will slow in 2023 and remain sluggish in 2024, according to Moody’s.

“Still, a period of relative stability could emerge by 2024 if governments and central banks manage to navigate their economies through the current challenges.”

Moody’s expects real GDP growth of the G-20 economies to decelerate to 1.3 percent in 2023, significantly lower than our previous estimate of 2.1% and down from an estimated 2.5 percent growth this year.

“Declining economic activity in advanced economies, notably in Europe and North America, will drive the sharp moderation in 2023 growth. In 2024, global economic activity will accelerate but only to a below-trend 2.2 percent growth rate,” it said.