Inflation rate data leak earlier than official time

ISTANBUL - Hürriyet Daily News

Hürriyet photo

Yesterday’s inflation data, which was lower than market expectations, was released earlier than its official time by an international news agency, triggering a temporary market fluctuation.

Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) President Birol Aydemir described the news agency’s actions as “very wrong.” The data was obtained by the news agency at 9:43 a.m. and released immediately, Aydemir said according to BloombergHT.com, an online financial news portal. “This was a very wrong act,” he said.

TÜİK normally releases data on its website at 10 a.m. Aydemir said there was a security gap in TÜİK’s system and the institution was working to identify this vulnerability. A team of professionals has been called in from the Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Institution (TÜBİTAK) to look into the matter.
The security gap will be made public as soon as it is identified, Aydemir said. “We have made some preliminary identifications.”

More room for rate cut

November consumer inflation being below market expectations gives the Central Bank the ability to cut both policy rates and the lower band of the interest corridor, according to economists.
Turkey’s consumer inflation eased from 7.8 percent in October to 6.4 percent in November, the lowest level in the last 16 months. November consumer inflation increased 0.38 percent month-on-month, below the market consensus of 0.9 percent. This was in line with the government’s expectation of a slowdown in inflation by the year’s end.

“We envisaged that inflation, which has been fluctuated between 6-11 percent levels in 2012, may range from 5 percent to 8 percent next year. This case would support the expansionary monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank of Turkey while raising expectations of further rate cuts in both the policy rate and lower band of the interest corridor,” the Odeabank Research and Strategic Planning department said in a written statement.

“We expect that the Central Bank may cut the policy rate or the lower band of the interest rate corridor at its monetary policy meeting on Dec. 18 or in January,” OYAK Investment economist Gülay Elif Girgin said yesterday with regard to the inflation data, according to Anatolia news agency.

The sharp decline in consumer inflation supports the Central Bank’s growth-focused monetary stance, said HSBC Portfolio Strategist Ali Çakıroğlu, adding that the bank may cut rates at a December meeting.
The monthly growth rate of producer prices hit a 15-month-high at nearly 1.7 percent in November, lifting year-on-year producer inflation to 3.6 percent.