Inflation, PMI data to be released this week

ISTANBUL

This week will see the release of some important macroeconomic data for the Turkish economy, including monthly and annual inflation statistics.

On July 3, the Turkish Statistics Institute (TÜİK) will unveil highly anticipated consumer price inflation numbers.

Most economists expect the consumer price index to increase 2.2 percent in June from the previous month. Should this expectation materialize, the annual inflation rate will come in at 72.6 percent.

Consumer prices advanced 3.37 percent month-on-month in May, which brought annual inflation to 75.45 percent from 69.8 percent in April.

In the statement accompanying its interest rate decision last week, the Central Bank reiterated its view that disinflation will be established in the second half of the year.

The high level of and the stickiness in services inflation, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and food prices keep inflationary pressures alive, the bank warned. On June 27, the bank kept the policy rate, the one-week repo auction rate, unchanged at 50 percent.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank’s new sectoral inflation expectations survey, published for the first time on June 28, showed that 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations decreased by 4.6 points to 71.5 percent for households, while they increased by 0.2 points to 56.2 percent for the real sector.

The other key data to be released will be the PMI in the manufacturing sector, which is scheduled to be unveiled on July 1.

The headline PMI in the manufacturing sector posted below the 50 no-change mark for the second consecutive month in May, dropping to 48.4 from 49.3 in April.