IMF lifts 2024 growth forecast for Türkiye

ISTANBUL

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lifted its economic growth forecast for the Turkish economy for 2024 from a previous 3 percent to 3.1 percent.

In its updated World Economic Outlook report released on Jan. 20, the IMF kept its 2025 forecast for Türkiye unchanged at 3 percent.

The IMF estimated that the Turkish economy grew 4 percent in 2023. The official growth data for last year have not been released yet.

The Turkish economy grew 5.9 percent in the third quarter of last year, accelerating from 3.9 percent in the April-June period.

The Turkish government’s GDP growth estimates for 2024 and 2025 are 4 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

The IMF also raised its 2024 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent, citing unexpected resilience in major advanced and emerging market economies around the world, including the United States and China.

The updated figure is 0.2 percentage points higher than the IMF’s previous forecast in October.

"The chance of a soft landing has increased, but the pace of expansion remains slow and risks remain," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said, adding that alluding to policymakers' attempts to successfully cut inflation by raising interest rates while avoiding a recession.

Despite the upgrade, the IMF predicts that global growth will remain below its recent historical average of 3.8 percent this year and next due to continued impacts of elevated interest rates, the withdrawal of pandemic-related government support and persistently low levels of productivity.

The IMF's overall inflation outlook remained unchanged at 5.8 percent for 2024.