G-20 leaders put growth before austerity measures

MOSCOW - Reuters

Finance ministers and central bank chiefs pose for a group photo following a meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers in Moscow, Russia. AP photo

The Group of 20 nations pledged on July 20 to put growth before austerity, seeking to revive a global economy that “remains too weak” and adjusting stimulus policies with care so that recovery is not derailed by volatile financial markets.

Finance ministers and central bankers signed off on a communique that acknowledged the benefits of expansive policies in the United States and Japan but highlighted the recession in the euro zone and a slowdown in emerging markets.

“While our policy actions have contributed to contain downside risks, those still remain elevated,” the statement said. “There has been an increase in financial market volatility and a tightening of conditions.”

Indications that the U.S. Federal Reserve would scale back its monetary stimulus dominated the two-day talks in Moscow, with emerging markets most concerned by a resulting selloff in stocks and bonds, and a flight to the dollar.

Hosts Russia said G-20 policymakers had soft-pedalled on goals to cut government debt in favour of a focus on growth and how to exit central bank stimulus with a minimum of turmoil.

“(G-20) colleagues have not made the decision to take responsibility to lower the deficits and debts by 2016,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told Reuters. “Some people thought that first you need to ensure economic growth.”

While the U.S. recovery is gaining traction, China’s export motor is sputtering, Japan’s
bid to break out of deflation has not reached escape velocity, and demand in the euro zone is
too weak to sustain a job-creating recovery.
 
Plan to create jobs

Officials backed an action plan to boost jobs and growth, while rebalancing global demand and debt, that will be readied for a G-20 leaders summit hosted by President Vladimir Putin in September.

“We remain mindful of the risks and unintended negative side effects of extended periods of monetary easing,” the statement said. “Future changes to monetary policy settings will continue to be carefully calibrated and clearly communicated.”

In return for its pledge to ‘message’ its monetary policy intentions clearly, Washington managed to ensure that the text contained no binding fiscal targets, saying that consolidation should be “calibrated” to economic conditions.

Sources at the meeting said Germany was less assertive than previously over commitments to reduce borrowing to follow on from a deal struck in Toronto in 2010, with the improving U.S. economy adding weight to Washington’s call to focus on growth.

With youth unemployment rates approaching 60 percent in euro zone strugglers Greece and Spain, the growth versus austerity debate has shifted - reflected in the fact that G-20 finance and labour ministers held a joint session on Friday.

The crisis in the euro zone periphery has been exacerbated by capital outflows, and the communique pledged to move “decisively” with reforms to create a banking union in Europe that could revive cross-border lending.

“The debate between growth and austerity seems to have come to an end, as captured in the G-20’s strong statement on growth and jobs,” a senior U.S. Treasury official said.

“The U.S. chose to pursue macroeconomic policies that encouraged economic growth and jobs, with fiscal correction once private demand was strong enough to be self sustaining.

The G-20 has acknowledged the importance of getting this balance right.”

Exchange rates and the threat of competitive devaluations barely figured, delegates said - in contrast to an ill-tempered G-20 meeting in February coloured by talk of currency wars.
 
Tread carefully

Ben Bernanke’s announcement two months ago that the Fed may start to wind down its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases sparked a panicky sell-off, particularly in emerging markets.

Investors were calmed by testimony to Congress this week by Bernanke, who is not in Moscow, although he said the exit plan from money-printing remained on the cards.

The G-20 accounts for 90 percent of the world economy and two-thirds of its population - many living in the large emerging economies at greatest risk of a reversal of capital inflows.