Fourth quarter GDP growth seen at 2.98 percent

ISTANBUL

Economists estimate that Türkiye’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 2.98 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to a survey by the AA Finans.

The Turkish economy expanded by 4.6 percent in the final quarter of 2023 and grew by 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, slowing from 2.4 percent in the previous quarter.

The growth expectations of economists who participated in the survey for the fourth quarter of 2024 ranged between 2.3 percent and 4.7 percent.

The average growth expectation of economists for the full year was 3.12 percent, while their growth forecast for the end of 2025 was 2.96 percent.

The government’s medium-term program, covering the period of 2025-27, forecasts that the Turkish economy will grow 4 percent this year to reach a size of $1.45 trillion, with per capita income at $17,028.

The government expects the rate of economic growth to accelerate to 4.5 percent next year and 5 percent in 2027.

If those expectations materialize per capita income in Türkiye will increase to $18,900 in 2026 and $20,420 in 2027.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will release the fourth quarter and full-year growth on Feb. 28.

Some other key data will also be released this week, including business sentiment, the manufacturing sector capacity utilization rate as well as confidence in the services, retail and construction sectors for February.

TÜİK will unveil foreign trade numbers for January and the economic confidence index for this month on Feb. 27.

The statistics authority will also release the unemployment rate for January later this week.