EU to name new defense tsar - but is the job a dud?

BRUSSELS

Faced with the ongoing conflict resulting from Russia's war on Ukraine, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has promised to appoint a dedicated defense commissioner, signaling Europe's commitment to bolstering its defense capabilities.

The message is meant to be clear: Europe is serious about rearming.

But while the position was originally billed as central to the EU's ambitions, there are now major doubts over how much power it will actually have.

Initially envisaged as a central component of the EU’s ambitions, the proposed defense commissioner role has experienced a shift in perception. As the EU’s member states weigh in, there seems to be less enthusiasm about claiming the position, which is set to be part of the bloc's new leadership structure announced soon.

According to Burkard Schmitt, defense and security director at industry association ASD, the idea of a dedicated defense commissioner underscores the growing significance of defense in Europe today.

However, he questions what practical impact the role will have, as the EU itself does not possess a unified army and is not planning to establish one.

"While the ambition behind this idea is commendable, the key question is: what would it actually mean in practice?" said Schmitt, who was speaking in a personal capacity rather than for his organisation.

Currently, the defense industry falls under the broad remit of French commissioner Thierry Breton.

Breton is anticipated to step into a larger role overseeing industrial growth throughout the EU.

Since Russia's incursion into Ukraine in 2022, Europe's need for a stronger defense sector has become apparent, though years of underinvestment have hindered significant growth in arms production.

Despite several initiatives, the EU struggles to meet its defense spending ambitions, with von der Leyen noting that an investment of 500 billion euros over the next decade is necessary. Yet, current financial commitments fall short of this goal, as member states are cautious about allocating their defense budgets to EU-led efforts and opening their markets to competition.

Schmitt pointed out that the effectiveness of the new commissioner will largely hinge on their budget.

"A defense budget of 100 billion would obviously have a bigger impact than a budget of 10 billion," he said.

Turf war?

Experts say that to increase the heft of the new job von der Leyen could fold in other responsibilities.

Those may include cyber security, protecting critical infrastructure, space, or efforts to boost the ability to transport troops from one part of Europe to another.

"You can fatten out the portfolio beyond the perimeters that have been sketched out, that isn't too difficult," said Camille Grand, of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

But whoever takes the new job could face a challenge carving out their niche in a turf war for influence in Brussels with some of the big names in the next commission.

Breton will likely be looming from one side and on the other will be new foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, whose role involves overseeing the bloc's security policy.

"It's up to the president of the Commission to properly define the role," said Guntram Wolff of the Bruegel think tank.

Diplomats say the questions swirling over the new job have seen EU powerhouses such as France and Poland switch their priorities to obtaining other positions — with defence now a fall-back option.

"I think it's a very attractive plan B for many," said one EU diplomat.

Despite the doubts over the role, analysts said that given growing threats in the world and since the United States may continue to step back from Europe, the defence gig was likely to be a mainstay in future administrations.

"It's possible that the job will become more important and more significant over time," said Ian Lesser, Brussels head at the German Marshall Fund think tank.

"I don't see it as a transient experiment."