This aerial picture shows a farmer cutting paddy crops damaged by drought in Aneuk Galong, Aceh province on August 30, 2026.(AFP Photo)
El Nino could be the strongest since records began four decades ago, the United Nations’ climate agency warned on Sept. 3, with the U.N. chief warning the world is in the “danger zone of extreme weather.”
The naturally-occurring weather phenomenon is set to become “very strong” in the months ahead and is near certain to persist through to February, the World Mete-orological Organization (WMO) said.
El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began, so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO chief Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva.
El Nino will peak towards the end of this year, though its knock-on impacts for the climate will continue well into 2027, said the WMO.
Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the at-mosphere, pushing up global temperatures the follow-ing year.
The powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 be-ing the warmest year on record, and “we should not be surprised if this record is broken,” Saulo added.
“El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big im-pacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and asso-ciated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat,” the WMO said.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change.
But scientists expect it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming from burning fossil fuels, while amping up weather extremes.
“El Nino is being supersized before our eyes,” said U.N. chief Antonio Guterres.
“The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather,” he added.
“The race now is between rising risks and our commit-ment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
El Nino has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world, said Saulo.
“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these im-pacts to increase as El Nino intensifies,” she said.
Saulo put disaster management authorities and cli-mate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water on notice, saying there was “no time to lose” in getting ready.
El Nino typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.
Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.
“Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Nino is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity,” the WMO said.
