Confidence in economy, inflation expectations improve

ANKARA

Confidence in the Turkish economy improved, while inflation expectations declined in October, separate surveys from the Central Bank and the statistics authority have shown.

The economic confidence index rose for a second month in raw, rising 3.2 percent in October from September, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) said on Oct. 30.

The index hit 98, its highest value since May last year, when the gauge of confidence was 98.2.

When the index is above the 100 mark, it indicates an optimistic outlook about the general economic situation.

The monthly advance in consumer confidence accelerated from 2.4 percent in September to 3 percent in October to hit 80.6 points.

The real sector confidence index, which rose 1.2 percent last month, increased by another 3 percent in October.

In the services sector, confidence improved by 1.5 percent, after rising 0.6 percent.

The month-on-month rise in the confidence index of the retail industry, however, slowed from 2.5 percent in September to 0.1 percent.

In the construction sector, the decline in confidence became steeper, with the monthly decline in the index accelerating from 0.2 percent to 1.7 percent.

Inflation expectations improving

A separate survey from the Central Bank released on Oct. 30 showed that inflation expectations improved across the board.

In October, 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 points to 27.4 percent for market participants, the Central Bank said.

Market participants include decision-makers and experts from the financial and real sectors.

The 12-month ahead inflation expectations fell by 1.6 points to 49.5 percent for the real sector.

Households also slashed their inflation expectations by a significant 4.4 points to 67.2 percent, which marked the lowest level in the past two and a half years.

The proportion of households expecting a fall in inflation in the next 12 months decreased by 0.7 points to 28.3 percent, the bank said.

The annual inflation rate slowed from 51.97 percent in August to 49.38 percent in September, with consumer prices rising 2.97 percent month-on-month.

In a statement it released after the rate-setting meeting earlier this month, the Central Bank reiterated that the tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is observed and inflation expectations converge to the projected forecast range.

In October, the bank extended its interest-rate pause for a seventh straight month, keeping the policy rate unchanged at 50 percent.

In its latest inflation report, the bank said it sees inflation at 38 percent at the end of this year and 14 percent in 2025.