Turkish firms weigh opportunities, risks after Assad’s fall

ISTANBUL

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria could significantly impact Turkish companies employing large numbers of Syrian refugees and ripple through the wider economy, experts and business leaders warn.

Shares in Turkish construction and cement companies surged on Dec. 9, driven by expectations that they will benefit from the rebuilding efforts in Syria.

The reconstruction of cities and infrastructure devastated during the civil war will give a boost to Türkiye’s exports to Syria, said Cemal Demirtaş from the research department at brokerage firm Ata Yatırım.

“Trade between Türkiye and Syria will gain momentum,” he added.

The bilateral trade was $2.3 billion in 2010 but declined to $565 million in 2012, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).

Turkish cement companies are likely to be the main beneficiaries of the reconstruction work in the neighboring country in the post-Assad era, according to Demirtaş.

“Turkish steelmakers will also benefit but this may be rather limited because the demand in Syria and prices will depend on global developments,” he added.

 Syrian workers

Some of the Syrian refugees have already started to return to their countries after the Assad regime was toppled.

Turkish companies that employ Syrian workers are trying to figure out how this would impact them and the Turkish economy.

Last year, 108,250 Syrians were granted work permits by the Turkish Labor and Social Security Ministry.

If most of the Syrians, who are considered a cheap labor force, leave, this could drive up costs for companies, according to experts.

Given the weak domestic demand, companies are not likely to pass higher costs onto the prices which will lead to a decline in profitability, they said.

However, representatives of some business associations are not pessimistic, arguing that the impact of the return of Syrians will be limited.

Syrians do not constitute a large part of the labor force, said Mehmet Kaya, president of the chamber of commerce and industry in the southeastern province of Diyarbakır, near Syria.

“It would be unrealistic to expect all Syrians to return [to their country]. Some of them launched their own businesses, some of them became white-collar workers…Those people are likely to stay [in Türkiye],” he added.

Syrians account for around 3 percent of employees in the southern province of Gaziantep, according to Fikret Kileci from the Anatolian Exporters’ Association, which represents free zones in several provinces in the southeastern Türkiye.

“Syrians are mostly work at Syrian-owned businesses. If those workers chose to go back, I do not think, this would have a significant impact on the companies in the southeastern provinces,” Kileci explained.

Out of a total of 280,000 people working at the five organized industrial zones in Gaziantep, only 12,000 are Syrians, said Adnan Ünverdi, president of the chamber of commerce in the city.

“If they return to their country, our operations won’t be affected. There would be period of confusion but I do not expect major problems,” he said, adding that companies could continue their operations by hiring unemployed Turkish people.