Turkey to slide back to world's 19th biggest economy by year's end

Hülya Güler ISTANBUL

DHA Photo

Turkey will drop from 17th to 19th place on the list of the world’s biggest economies by the end of 2014, according to the World Economic League Table by the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

Turkey’s GDP will decrease to $767 billion by the end of the year, from around $827 billion in 2013 due to a loss in the Turkish Lira’s value, according to the report.

The CEBR expects the country will rise to 16th place on the list by 2024.

According to the report, which was prepared using the IMF’s 2013 data, growth forecasts, current inflation rates and exchange rates, Turkey will be able to regain its status in 17th by 2019, with an expected GDP of $1.52 trillion.

The CEBR notes Turkey, which aims to be one of the 10 biggest economies by 2023, will be able to reach 14th place by 2030.

Russia’s economic woes, a likely weak ruble and a low price of oil indicate that it will drop from  eighth position in 2013 to 10th in 2014 and stay around that position until 2030, said the report.

“Countries that have faced serious problems with their neighbors and whose leaders have more nationalistic tendencies, like Russia and Argentina, have been downgraded on the list. Asian countries have also become stronger than European countries,” said CEBR chief economist Douglas McWilliams.

The report also forecasts China to overtake the U.S. in 2025 compared to 2028 in last year’s forecasts.

The U.K. appears to have overtaken France this year in becoming the world’s fifth largest economy, but as the 2014 GDP figures are $2,828 billion for the U.K. and $2,827 billion for France, the gap is well within the margin of error.

The rise of India looks unstoppable, according to the report. India, which is expected to be the ninth largest by the end of 2014, will overtake the U.K. in 2018 to become the largest economy in the Commonwealth. By 2024 India will be the world’s third largest economy.

Germany is forecast to drop, held back by a declining population and the likely weakness of the euro, according to the report. In 2030, Germany, which for many years was the world’s third largest economy, will be overtaken by the U.K. for the first time for since 1954 to drop to seventh place in the league.

South Korea is becoming an economic powerhouse as its growth continues. Its league table position will move from 15th in 2013 to a solid eighth, just behind Germany, by 2030, the report suggested.