This week’s data expected to show further decline in inflation

ISTANBUL

Data to be unveiled by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) later this week is expected to show a further decline in the annual inflation rate in September.

Türkiye's annual inflation is forecast to drop to 48.1 percent in September from 51.97 percent in August, according to a state-run Anadolu Agency poll of economists.

Economists’ inflation expectation is at 43.23 percent for the end of 2024.

The statistics authority will announce the inflation numbers on Oct. 3.

A Central Bank survey released last week showed that 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations decreased by 1.2 points to 27.5 percent among market participants and by 2.7 points to 51.1 percent in the real sector in September.

Households’ inflation expectations for the same period fell by 1.5 points to 71.6 percent. The proportion of households expecting a fall in inflation in the next 12 months declined by 0.6 points to 29 percent.

In its latest medium-term program, the government projects the end-year inflation rate for 2024 at 41.5 percent. It expects inflation to decline to 17.5 percent next year and down to 9.7 percent in 2026.

This week will also see the release of the results of the PMI survey for the Turkish manufacturing sector.

Last month’s survey showed that the manufacturing PMI posted 47.8 in August, up from 47.2 in July but still indicating a moderation in the health of the sector during the month.

Any figure greater than the 50-mark indicates overall improvement in the sector.