Survey forecasts no change in interest rates

ISTANBUL-Anadolu Agency

Turkey's Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates constant this week, according to an Anadolu Agency survey on Jan. 13.

The first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting of 2020 will be held on Jan. 16to announce the bank's decision on interest rates.

A majority of 21 economists surveyed by Anadolu Agency forecast no change in interest rates.

While 12 economists forecast that the bank will not change rates, nine expected decreases, ranging from 25 to 100 basis points.

In December, the bank cut its one-week repo rate by 200 basis points to 12 percent, down from 14 percent.

During 2019, the bank cut the rate by a total of 1,200 basis points, from 24 percent.

Turkish officials have said they expect more rate cuts over the course of this year, but the Central Bank makes it decisions independently.

After holding eight MPC meetings last year, this year the bank boosted the number of those meetings to 12.

Industrial production to rise

Another Anadolu Agency survey showed that Turkey's unadjusted industrial production index is expected to rise 5.8 percent for November 2019 on a yearly basis.

The unadjusted industrial production index in November’s survey ranged between 4.2 percent and 8.5 percent.

On the other hand, in November, a total of 10 economists estimated the calendar-adjusted industrial production index will rise 5.3 percent on an annual basis.

Unadjusted and calendar-adjusted industrial production indices were up 2.8 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively, in October 2019 on a yearly basis.

The term "calendar-adjusted" is used to refer to data where calendar and holiday-originated effects are removed.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) is due to release official inflation figures on Jan. 24