September ‘evolves into summer month’: Expert

ISTANBUL

In the wake of extreme temperatures and unusual weather events fueled by the El Nino phenomenon, September has evolved into an extension of summer, obviating the traditional occurrence of autumn.

“Most likely, 2023 will be recorded as one of the hottest years in history. In light of these developments, September assumes the mantle of a summer month,” meteorologist Orhan Şen stated, ascribing this meteorological peculiarity to the influence of El Niño.

"We do not expect much rainfall this month, and the scarcity of rain is likely to persist into the upcoming winter months, especially in the Marmara region. Temperatures are consistently above seasonal averages. Considering the 90-day span of the autumn season, approximately 60 days are projected to have temperatures above the norm," he explained.

Noting that Istanbul is unlikely to witness any snowfall this winter, Şen stated that the city might experience snow for just one day at most.

“Perhaps there will be no snowfall at all, or maybe we'll see a single day of snow in Istanbul. Snowfall is crucial for water accumulation in dams, especially for drinking water reservoirs. When we consider this from the perspective of drinking water reservoirs, the absence of snowfall is not very promising for Istanbul in the autumn and winter."

Şen warned that the city, which is home to 16 million people, could face more serious water problems in the future, calling for measures such as preventing evaporation, using underground reservoirs, reducing distribution losses, rainwater harvesting, and rainfall enhancement projects.

Adil Tek, the head of the Meteorology Laboratory at Boğaziçi University's Kandilli Observatory, also noted that rainfall is expected toward the end of September in the Marmara, Eastern Black Sea, and Western Black Sea regions.

"While these anticipated rains may fall, they are unlikely to be a remedy for the drought experienced in September. It can be said that September has been warm, with temperatures consistently exceeding the average. September, in the grander scheme of meteorological regularities, ostensibly retains an intrinsic precipitation quotient; nevertheless, even the ostensibly impending deluges appear poised to fall short of these statistical benchmarks,” he explained.