Ak Party and CHP owe peace to this country
A source from the Justice and Development Party (Ak Party) said, “Our survey commissions did a wonderful job. When you look at their reports, there are enough reasons both to form a coalition government and also not to form one.”
This source indeed did not see the Republican People’s Party (CHP) commission’s report, but it is only natural that the reports of the two parties are similar.
Ak Party leader Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu will review today and tomorrow the last surveys his party ordered to research companies.
There are two answers being sought in the surveys: who will the voter vote for if an election was held today and how does the voter regard the holding of an election today?
I don’t know the results of the surveys to be presented to Davutoğlu, but other companies held other surveys and their results on holding a new election were not encouraging. First, at least half of the voters do not want a new election. The results are also not dramatically different from June 7; parties stand where they already stood, more or less.
These two months after the election have created a huge illusion. A segment has started believing seriously that politics was an exchange of messages among political elites and voters monitor this more closely every day and change their preferences accordingly.
They assume that with every outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) attack, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) loses votes, and whenever the government bombs PKK camps, those votes that went to the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) are coming back to the Ak Party.
If the voting behavior of the voter were to be manipulated with such engineering moves, then there would not be a party named the Ak Party today, the Feb. 28, 1997, post-modern coup would have lasted 1,000 years.
One does not need to be a political scientist to see the price of a new election will be paid by the Ak Party. A worsening of the economic situation especially increases the discontent toward this party.
For this reason, the Ak Party is holding the election card as if it were an option, bluffing in a way, to have the stronger hand in coalition negotiations.
The CHP on the other hand is very happy with the MHP’s and HDP’s stances. Knowing it is the only option for the Ak Party, it also wants to show it has a strong hand.
However, one thing is certain after shedding these prejudices: These two parties are bound to each other.
They are not only bound, they also owe this partnership to Turkey. These two parties started the political polarization 13 years ago and made it climb; they owe peace to the country.
They have to form a strong and functioning coalition.
Why did MHP votes increase?
It looks as if the MHP has based the increase in their votes on the existence of the peace process.
I do not agree with this analysis. I think the reason of the increase in MHP votes was due to the increase in the general discontent in the country. Indeed, those who are not happy are the ones who are not happy with the government. The ones who are concerned with the resolution process, or those who are not happy with it, are a group in the general group of unhappy ones. That general mass is not guided by this group.
This is the reason why when those who are content with the state of affairs in the country increase, the votes of the MHP decrease.
The MHP is a party from the “Turkism” block; in one way it is the right wing of the CHP. But it has a conservative discourse that is able to draw voters from the Islamist block. The situation is critical, for this reason.