Oil dips as U.S. grants Iran sanctions waivers; Tehran defiant

SINGAPORE – Reuters

Oil prices fell on Nov. 5 as the start of U.S. sanctions against Iran’s fuel exports was softened by waivers that will allow major buyers to still import Iranian crude, while Tehran said it would ignore Washington and continue to sell.

Front-month Brent crude futures were at $72.47 per barrel early on Nov. 5, down 36 cents, or 0.5 percent from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 35 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $62.79 a barrel.

Both Brent and WTI have lost more than 15 percent in value since early October, in part as hedge funds have cut their bullish wagers on crude to a one-year low, data showed on Nov. 2.

Washington re-introduced sanctions against Iran on Nov. 5, restoring measures lifted under a 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by the administration of President Barack Obama, and adding 300 new designations including Iran’s oil, shipping, insurance and banking sectors.

In response, Iranian President Hassan Rohani said in speech broadcast on state TV on Nov. 5 that Iran will break U.S. sanctions and continue to sell oil.

Washington has granted some exemptions. The United States said on Nov. 2 it will temporarily allow eight importers to keep buying Iranian oil.

“The impact of the sanctions is going to be largely softened as a result of this allowance,” said Sukrit Vijayakar, director of Indian energy consultancy Trifecta.

Washington has so far not named the eight. China, India, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, the United Arab Emirates and Japan have been the top importers of Iran’s oil, while Taiwan occasionally buys Iranian crude.

South Korea said on Nov. 5 it has been granted a waiver to at least temporarily continue to import condensate, a super-light form of crude oil, from Iran and also still continue financial transactions with the Middle East country.

Japan said it was in close communication with the United States. While Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga declined to detail any potential sanction waivers, he said his government had asked Washington that sanctions should not have an adverse impact on Japanese companies.

Oil markets have been preparing for the sanctions for months.

“Iranian exports and production had been declining steadily ... Iranian exports show a decline of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) as of October from May,” said Edward Bell of Emirates NBD bank.

Supplye surge

On the demand side, Bell warned that consumption may be slowing due to an economic slowdown, as seen in a sharp drop in refining profits.

“Sagging refining margins at a time of weak crude prices sends a very telling message to us that demand is underperforming,” he said.

A slowdown in demand would come just as output is rising.

Joint output from the world’s top producers - Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia - in October rose above 33 million bpd for the first time, up 10 million bpd since 2010.

In the Middle East, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) plans to increase its oil production capacity to 4 million bpd by the end of 2020 and 5 million bpd by 2030, ADNOC said on Nov. 4, compared with current output of just over 3 million bpd.