Lagarde optimistic about euro

PRETORIA - Agence France-Presse

IMF’s Lagarde (L) shakes hands with a potter in Boubon on the river Niger Dec 21. The IMF chief says the eurozone crisis is taking a toll on Africa. AFP Photo

The euro is unlikely to “vanish” this year, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said Dec. 6, adding that a report this month will show the global economy growing slower than the 4 percent estimated in September.
“Will 2012 be the end of the euro? My answer is, I don’t think so,” she told a press conference during a visit to South Africa. “The currency itself is not likely to vanish or disappear in 2012.”

“Will Greece quit the eurozone in 2012? The euro partners have affirmed, reaffirmed their determination. We can only support that,” she said. But Lagarde warned that the crisis was taking a toll on Africa and the rest of the world, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) set to release a report around Jan. 25 that is likely lower the global growth forecast.

“It should be revised downwards. We will come out with figures around Jan. 25, 26,” she said. “We should be prepared for a 2012 that will not be an easy journey, but one of effort and focus (regarding) the European crisis and its resolution.”

“African countries are a critical part of the global economy,” she added, in a nod to her hosts. “These countries will suffer setbacks if the European crisis is not addressed.”

“We will be vigilant in 2012 in respect to anything that looks like domestic protectionism, or countries not adopting an international cooperative approach, which is in our view absolutely necessary,” Lagarde added.

Eurozone threat to Africa

Lagarde was set to meet with South African President Jacob Zuma on Saturday in the central city of Bloemfontein, where the latter is taking part in celebrations to mark the 100th anniversary of the African National Congress.

South Africa fell into its first recession since the fall of apartheid during the 2008 global financial crisis. While the recession lasted only nine months, the country has struggled to boost its growth rate to levels that the government says are needed to make a dent in a 25 percent unemployment rate that keeps 38 percent of the population living in poverty.

“The issue of employment, inequalities are at the front of many countries’ agenda,” Lagarde said. “Growth must not be just growth, but job creating.”

The rest of Africa escaped the fallout from the 2008 crisis, with many countries posting strong growth on the back of increased trade and investment with Asia, particularly giants China and India.
But Europe remains a critical trade partner for the continent, which is keeping a wary eye on the potential fallout of the eurozone crisis.

The euro on Thursday sank below $1.28 to levels last seen in September 2010, amid ongoing worries about the debt crisis. The debt crisis claimed Greece as its first victim in May 2010, with Ireland and then Portugal also needing bailouts. As the crisis drags on, speculation has grown that Italy and Spain could be the next member states to need a costly bailout.

An EU summit last month came up with yet another series of measures to tame the crisis but implementation takes time, with the markets piling on the pressure and showing no patience as Brussels tries to hold the line.