Key inflation data to be released this week

ISTANBUL

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will release closely watched consumer price inflation data for July on Aug. 3 this week.

Consumer prices increased by 4.95 percent in June from May, bringing the annual inflation rate up from 73.5 percent to 78.6 percent last month.

Last week, the Central Bank revised upwards its inflation forecasts for end-2022 and end-2023.

“With a 70 percent probability, inflation is expected to be between 56.9 percent and 63.9 percent - with a mid-point of 60.4 percent - at the end of 2022, and between 14.5 percent and 23.9 percent - with a mid-point of 19.2 percent - at the end of 2023, and between 3.9 percent and 13.7 percent - with a mid-point of 8.8 percent - at the end of 2024,” the bank said in its latest edition of the Inflation Report released on July 28.

The bank’s previous inflation estimates for 2022 and 2023 were 42.8 percent and 12.9 percent, respectively.

Forecasts are based on an outlook entailing a weaker global economic activity, a sustained rise in global inflation, and tighter global financial conditions compared to the previous reporting period, the bank explained.

The bank cited cost pressures, uncertainties regarding financial markets and the global economic outlook, geopolitical risks as well as pricing behavior and high inflation expectations as the key risks to inflation forecasts and possible impact channels.