International banks upbeat on Turkish inflation

ISTANBUL

Following the promising June CPI print, international banks have started to lower their inflation expectations for Türkiye.

Last month, consumer prices increased by 1.64 percent from May, which was lower than expected. The annual inflation rate slowed from 75.45 percent to 71.6 percent.

“The disinflation process has begun,” wrote Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek on X, hailing the latest inflation numbers.

Producer prices rose 1.38 monthly, for an annualized increase of 50 percent.

The latest inflation is consistent with the end-year target, Şimşek said.

In the medium-term program, the government’s inflation target for 2024 is 33 percent. In May, the Central Bank lifted its inflation forecast from the previous 36 percent to 38 percent for the end of 2024.

After the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) unveiled the June inflation statistics. JP Morgan lowered its inflation forecast for Türkiye from a previous 43.5 percent to 42.5 percent for the end of 2024. The bank also slashed its forecast for 2025 from 25.2 percent to 25 percent.

Goldman Sachs, another major global bank, argued that inflation may gain some momentum in July but forecast that inflation is likely to fall to 36 percent at the end of the year.

Morgan Stanley slashed its inflation expectation for 2024 from a previous 43.4 percent to 42.4 percent. The bank expects Turkish inflation to decline to 25.2 percent next year.

“The June CPI print is very positive news for the Turkish central bank and the Turkish Lira,” HSBC economists wrote in a report.

Therefore, from a monetary policy perspective and its credibility, the June CPI print is clearly a positive outcome, they added.