German big business fears Trump victory, finds survey

FRANKFURT

A survey of German companies has found nearly one in two expect negative impacts if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election over Kamala Harris, with just 5 percent expecting positive effects.

However around 51 percent of the companies surveyed said it would make no difference whether Trump or Harris wins the Nov. 5 vote, the survey by the Ifo institute said.

Trump has threatened tariffs on imports to the United States if he wins a second term in office. This spells danger for industry in Germany, for which the United States is now the top trade partner.

U.S.-German relations took a hit under Trump's 2017-2021 presidency.

He berated it and other allies on trade issues and for what he said was insufficient spending on the NATO defence alliance.

"Companies with close economic ties to the USA in particular expect negative consequences if Trump wins the election," said Ifo researcher Andreas Baur.

He added that "many companies without direct export ties to the USA also fear negative effects, because they could still be indirectly affected, for example as suppliers".

Only four percent of the companies surveyed said they were considering concrete steps such as shifting production facilities to the United States if Trump wins, the survey found.

Ifo surveyed 2,000 German industrial companies in September.