Famed screenwriter plots unlikely bid to beat Aliyev

TBILISI - Agence France-Presse

President Aliyev has overseen impressive economic growth but faces criticism over his government’s human rights record while Ibragimbekov said he will only hold office for two years.

Oscar-winning screenwriter Rustam Ibragimbekov should be back in his homeland of Azerbaijan preparing his unlikely bid to topple strongman President Ilham Aliyev at elections this October.

Instead, Ibragimbekov, who was chosen last month as presidential candidate by a coalition of Azerbaijan’s main opposition groups, says the threat of arrest in Baku and the lengthy process of giving up his joint Russian citizenship in order to stand in the election are keeping him abroad.

“As I am the only candidate from the democratic opposition my colleagues decided that we should not risk jeopardising the common cause and recommended that I do not go back right now,” Ibragimbekov, 74, told Agence France-Presse following a meeting of the opposition National Council of Democratic Forces in the Georgian capital Tbilisi.

“I will go and sort out my affairs in Moscow and then I will go to Baku,” he added.

Ibragimbekov, who co-authored the Oscar-winning 1994 film “Burnt by the Sun” with Russian director Nikita Mikhalkov, is an influential cultural figure in Azerbaijan, despite not having been back there since January.

Incumbent Aliyev, 51, has ruled the oil-rich country since taking over in 2003 after the death of his father Heydar, a former KGB officer and Communist-era boss. Ilham was officially chosen as presidential candidate by his Yeni Azerbaijan party in June.

Buoyed by billions in petro-dollars, Aliyev - who won the last election with over 85 percent of votes cast - has overseen impressive economic growth in the Caucasus nation but faces criticism over his government’s human rights record.

Ibragimbekov has said he will only hold office for two years and pledged to push through reforms to turn Azerbaijan into a parliamentary system. Azerbaijan is ripe for change, he said. “Over the past five or six years in Azerbaijan such an unbearable situation has arisen with the level of corruption shooting up and the authorities trampling on people’s rights,” the avuncular scriptwriter said.

“I am convinced that not only me but a lot of other people could win these elections as the main desire of the people is to get rid of those currently in power,” he added.

Analysts, however, say that despite Ibragimbekov bringing added clout to a once fragmented and weak opposition, even if he manages to register, he still has almost no chance of winning.

“There is little doubt that Aliyev will win the election with a big majority in the first round but the fact that a large part of the opposition has unified behind a single candidate is significant,” says Alex Nice, an Azerbaijan analyst at the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit.

Despite confidence from Aliyev’s camp, Azerbaijan’s ruling elite appears to be leaving little to chance ahead of the vote - especially since security officials ruthlessly suppressed a rare spate of public protests earlier this year.

Scores of opposition activists have been detained and human rights groups say the government is stepping up a campaign to stifle civil society in the run-up to the poll.

In January, prosecutors launched a tax evasion investigation into the Azerbaijani Filmmakers Union, which Ibragimbekov heads, and recent reports in the local media say he himself is now being investigated, although authorities will not publicly confirm this.

Ibragimbekov - who also has a home in Los Angeles - has been on a tour of Western capitals over the past few months drumming up support and interest in his candidacy.

However, Russia, which still has to process Ibragimbekov’s application to annul his joint citizenship, could have more of an influence on the polls.

“It’s hard to say how Russia will chose to play this - you would imagine they would ultimately do what they can to help Aliyev, while extracting the maximum political capital along the way,” Nice said.

“In any case, this is undoubtedly the kind of situation which the Kremlin relishes.” Baku and Moscow have had slightly frosty relations of late over the mainly Muslim, but officially secular, country’s ambitions to become a major gas supplier to Europe.

However, the two country’s recently inked a major arms deal and a first meeting between President Putin and Aliyev since the Russian leader returned to the presidency in 2012 has been mooted.

scar-winning screenwriter Rustam Ibragimbekov should be back in his homeland of Azerbaijan preparing his unlikely bid to topple strongman President Ilham Aliyev at elections this October.

Instead, Ibragimbekov, who was chosen last month as presidential candidate by a coalition of Azerbaijan’s main opposition groups, says the threat of arrest in Baku and the lengthy process of giving up his joint Russian citizenship in order to stand in the election are keeping him abroad.

“As I am the only candidate from the democratic opposition my colleagues decided that we should not risk jeopardizing the common cause and recommended that I do not go back right now,” Ibragimbekov, 74, told Agence France-Presse following a meeting of the opposition National Council of Democratic Forces in the Georgian capital Tbilisi.

“I will go and sort out my affairs in Moscow and then I will go to Baku,” he added.

Ibragimbekov, who co-authored the Oscar-winning 1994 film “Burnt by the Sun” with Russian director Nikita Mikhalkov, is an influential cultural figure in Azerbaijan, despite not having been back there since January.

Pledge for transition to parliamentary system

Incumbent Aliyev, 51, has ruled the oil-rich country since taking over in 2003 after the death of his father Heydar, a former KGB officer and Communist-era boss. Ilham was officially chosen as presidential candidate by his Yeni Azerbaijan party in June.

Buoyed by billions in petro-dollars, Aliyev, who won the last election with over 85 percent of votes cast, has overseen impressive economic growth in the Caucasus nation but faces criticism over his government’s human rights record.

Ibragimbekov has said he will only hold office for two years and pledged to push through reforms to turn Azerbaijan into a parliamentary system. Azerbaijan is ripe for change, he said. “Over the past five or six years in Azerbaijan such an unbearable situation has arisen with the level of corruption shooting up and the authorities trampling on people’s rights,” the avuncular scriptwriter said.

“I am convinced that not only me but a lot of other people could win these elections as the main desire of the people is to get rid of those currently in power,” he added. Analysts, however, say that despite Ibragimbekov bringing added clout to a once fragmented and weak opposition, even if he manages to register, he still has almost no chance of winning.

Despite confidence from Aliyev’s camp, Azerbaijan’s ruling elite appears to be leaving little to chance ahead of the vote, especially since security officials ruthlessly suppressed a rare spate of public protests earlier this year.

Tour of Western capitals

Scores of opposition activists have been detained and human rights groups say the government is stepping up a campaign to stifle civil society in the run-up to the poll. In January, prosecutors launched a tax evasion investigation into the Azerbaijani Filmmakers Union, which Ibragimbekov heads, and recent reports in the local media say he himself is now being investigated, although authorities will not publicly confirm this.

Ibragimbekov, who also has a home in Los Angeles, has been on a tour of Western capitals over the past few months drumming up support and interest in his candidacy. However, Russia, which still has to process Ibragimbekov’s application to annul his joint citizenship, could have more of an influence on the polls.

“It’s hard to say how Russia will chose to play this - you would imagine they would ultimately do what they can to help Aliyev, while extracting the maximum political capital along the way,” Alex Nice, an Azerbaijan analyst at the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit, said.

Baku and Moscow have had slightly frosty relations of late over Azerbaijan’s ambitions to become a major gas supplier to Europe. However, the two country’s recently inked a major arms deal and a first meeting between President Putin and Aliyev since the Russian leader returned to the presidency in 2012 has been mooted.