Expert warns of even hotter summer in 2024

ISTANBUL

Following the El Nino phenomenon that caused sweltering heat and record high temperatures globally, climate scientist Levent Kurnaz has warned of an even hotter summer in 2024 as the sun is reaching the peak of its activity, known as "solar maximum."

Professor Kurnaz, the director of Boğaziçi University Climate Policy Research Center, said the sun warms up and cools down slightly in 11-year cycles and that this can only be felt at a rate of 0.001 in daily life.

Stating that the sun has been cold in the last 15 years, Kurnaz said, "Scientists predicted that it would cool down slightly for 30 years. Contrary to expectations, the sun has warmed up considerably in the last six months."

"The sun has an 11-year cycle left, and it will reach its peak in 2025. There is also the possibility of a very strong El Nino the coming summer. This means that average temperatures will be higher than expected, with the sun warming more than expected," he said.

"In short, two warming events will overlap next summer. If the El Nino effect continues, the summer of 2024 will be quite hot. By 2025, above-normal temperature increases may continue," Kurnaz expressed.

"There are several factors that determine the temperature. One of them is global climate change. The whole world is already getting warmer because of it,” he said.

"When we are under the influence of El Nino, we see an increase in temperatures between 0.5 and 1 degrees Celsius. With the warming of the sun, a little more will be added to temperatures. So there will be an increase of between 0.2 and 0.3 degrees Celsius,” Kurnaz said.

Noting that an increase of 0.3 degrees on average means that extreme temperatures will increase by 1.5 to 2 degrees, Kurnaz said, "For this reason, while Istanbul normally experiences a temperature of maximum 35-36 degrees Celsius in summer, we will likely witness 37-38 degrees Celsius next summer."

"Last summer, Türkiye's highest temperature of 49.5 degrees Celsius was measured in Eskişehir's Sarıcakaya district. This year, we can probably break a new record by exceeding 49.5 degrees Celsius,” the scientist concluded.

El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The atmosphere is also affected by El Nino, with average temperatures rising around the world. This climate pattern is described as the "warm phase" of a larger phenomenon called the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).