Expert forecasts warm fall for Türkiye

ISTANBUL

Following this summer’s scorching heat, high temperatures are expected to persist into the fall season, an expert has warned.

Professor Dr. Barış Önol, analyzing data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), anticipates that the trend of extreme heat will continue into the fall season, referring to it as the 'red planet' series — a nod to the extreme temperatures depicted in the graphics.

“Following a spring and summer with high temperatures, forecasts for the upcoming autumn months indicate an extremely hot spell,” Önol clarified.

The expert underlined that this foresight poses great significance as the “water year” will commence on Oct. 1, following the end of El Nino and the start of La Nina in the Pacific.

According to the evaluation of the General Directorate of Meteorology, the temperature prevailing in the country is predicted to be 1 to 2 degrees Celsius over seasonal norms in the central and southwestern regions and 0.5 to 1 degrees above seasonal norms in the other areas in September. The amount of precipitation, on the other hand, is expected to fall in line with seasonal averages across the nation.

Meanwhile, this week’s temperatures will also go beyond the average temperature expected during this period, as the temperature is expected to escalate starting from Aug. 13.

While the humid air will take hold of the metropolis of Istanbul, the northeast wind will continue to take effect. In the Aegean region, however, the northeast wind is expected to weaken, subsequently, leading to an increase in the intensity of hot temperatures.

In the Mediterranean city of Antalya, one of the prominent tourism hot spots of the country, temperatures will fluctuate around 40 degrees Celsius this week, too.

While hot temperatures take hold across the nation, the global average temperature also indicates that 2024 might be the warmest year on record throughout the world, according to an EU climate official.

"The devastating effects of climate change started well before 2023 and will continue until global greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero," said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), with another Secretary-General from the World Meteorological Organization, Celeste Saulo, reflecting on a year of "widespread, intense and extended heatwaves.”

July 2024 was 1.48 Celsius warmer than the estimated average temperatures for the month during the period 1850-1900 before the world started to rapidly burn fossil fuels.

This has translated into punishing heat for hundreds of millions of people.

The Earth experienced its two hottest days on record with global average temperatures at a virtual tie on July 22 and 23 reaching 17.6 degrees Celsius, according to C3S.