European nations debate conscription to boost defenses

BRUSSELS

Frightened by the prospect of U.S. security disengagement and three years of Moscow's war against Ukraine, European countries are debating reinstating compulsory military service to boost their defenses in the face of Russian aggression.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caught Europe off guard, and fears about the strength of NATO surged further after U.S. President Donald Trump upended the transatlantic alliance, saying Europe must take care of its own security.

Both military analysts and European governments acknowledge that the threat of Russian aggression is real, today even more so than three years ago.

"The Russian military today is larger and better than on Feb. 24, 2022. The Russians have hostile intent against the Baltic states and the EU's eastern flank," said Alexandr Burilkov, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science (IPW) at Heidelberg University.

According to a study Burilkov co-authored for think tank Bruegel and the Kiel Institute, Europe could need 300,000 more troops to deter Russian aggression, in addition to 1.47 million active-duty military personnel.

"Conscription would have to play a role in any such large numbers of new troops," he said.

From Paris to Warsaw, leaders have been looking to boost defense spending in the face of U.S. threats to withdraw its European security guarantees.

But many countries, including France and Britain, have struggled with recruiting and retaining troops. Reintroducing some form of national service, compulsory or voluntary, might be even more difficult.

According to a YouGov poll, most people in France (68 percent) and Germany (58 percent) support mandatory military service for young people. Italian and British people are divided, while a majority of Spaniards (53 percent) are against it.

But studies also show that many Europeans are not prepared to defend their countries on the battlefield.

"In a liberal society, the imposition of military constraints has become nearly impossible to implement," said Benedicte Cheron, a French expert who studies links between society and the armed forces.

"As long as there is no invasion of the territory, accepting the political costs of imposing sanctions on those who do not comply with the call-up seems unthinkable."

After the Cold War, most European countries ended compulsory conscription. Just nine countries, Greece, Greek Cyprus, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway and Türkiye, never suspended it.

Lithuania reintroduced conscription in 2015, a year after Russia annexed Crimea. Sweden followed suit in 2017 and Latvia in 2023.

But mindful of political and economic costs, most of NATO's five biggest European spenders, France, Germany, the U.K., Italy and Poland, are not planning to make participation in armed forces mandatory.

But Poland, which ended conscription in 2008, recently announced plans to offer military training to 100,000 civilians a year, starting in 2027. The scheme will be voluntary, but the authorities are planning a system of "motivations and incentives," said Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Germany's likely future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said he favors the reintroduction of a compulsory year in which young people could perform either military or community service.

In Britain, the last national servicemen were demobilized in 1963 and the government does not plan to reverse course.

In France, where compulsory military service ended in 2001, President Emmanuel Macron has been looking for ways to encourage young people to serve.

In comments to reporters published on March 15, he said France no longer had the "logistics" to re-introduce compulsory service, but he wanted to "look at ways to mobilize civilians" and would be making an announcement in the coming weeks.

Reintroducing national service "would mean transforming a large part of the army into training centers", said French military historian Michel Goya.

In Italy, Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has ruled out reintroducing national service but spoken in favor of a reserve force.