Corruption, the government, the Cemaat: A survey

Ahmet HAKAN ahmethakan@hurriyet.com.tr

A survey conducted by the MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center, titled “January 2014 - Turkey’s Pulse Research” has arrived. Professor Özer Sencar, Professor İhsan Dağı, Professor Doğu Ergil and Vahap Coşkun, Ph.D. led the survey. 

I will leave it for you to comment. Here are the results: 

Which one best describes the incident that started with the Dec. 17 graft operation? 

42.2 percent: It is a corruption and bribery investigation.
24 percent: It is a coup initiative against the government.
24.9 percent: It is both a graft investigation and a coup plot against the government. 
8.9 percent: No idea/No answer. 

Do you agree that the graft operation of Dec. 17 is justified? 

60.5 percent: Yes, I do. 
26.5 percent: No, I don’t. 
13 percent: No idea/No answer.

Do you think the claims are right that some Cabinet ministers, their close associates and relatives are involved in corruption? 

70.1 percent: Yes, I do.
16.8 percent: No, I don’t. 
3.1 percent: No idea/No answer.

Do you think the government is trying to cover up the corruption claims? 

59.7: percent: Yes, I do.
29.6: percent: No, I don’t.
10.7 percent: No idea/No answer.

Do you think the graft operations are being obstructed? 

57.9 percent: Yes, I do.
31.7 percent: No, I don’t.
10.5 percent: No idea/No answer.

Do you think the government exerted pressure on the security forces in the Dec. 17 corruption investigations?

61.6 percent: Yes, I do.
27.0 percent: No, I don’t.
11.4 percent: No idea/No answer.

Do you think the press is freely informing the public on corruption charges?

25.0 percent: Yes, I do.
63.8 percent: No, I don’t.
11.1 percent: No idea/No answer.

Which side is right in the clash between the government and the Gülen movement (Cemaat)?

45.1 percent: Both are wrong.
28.5 percent: The government is right.
6.3 percent: The Cemaat is right.
5.6 percent: Both are right
14.5 percent: No idea/no answer.

Do you believe the Cemaat has set up a parallel structure within the state?

57.3 percent: Yes, I do.
22.9 percent: No, I don’t.
18.7 percent: No idea/No answer.

Do you believe the judiciary is independent?

64.8 percent: No I don’t.
24.7 percent: Yes, I do.
10.6 percent: No idea/No answer.

Electoral projections and comments

I talked to Professor Özer Sencar, the person heading the poll. These were his observations:

- The Dec. 17 process harms both the Cemaat and the government.

- The public perception about the Cemaat is changing negatively.

- The votes of the AKP dropped to 36 percent during the Gezi protests.

- But the strategy endorsed by the prime minister during Gezi succeeded. Within a short time, the AKP’s votes started to increase, reaching 50 percent.

- The AKP’s votes decreased to 35/36 percent over the course of Dec. 17.

- But in contrast to the Gezi protests, the strategy endorsed by the prime minister since Dec. 17 has not led to a rise in the AKP’s votes.

- If there was a general election this Sunday; the votes that the AKP could get would be 36 percent without the undecided, and 42 percent when the undecided are taken into account.

- (Former President Süleyman) Demirel used to say that one day was a long time in politics. This was valid for Demirel’s time. Now, not just one day but even one hour is a long time in politics.