Climate shifts raise tropical diseases risk for Türkiye

ISTANBUL

Türkiye faces an escalating risk of a surge in tropical diseases due to a significant rise in temperatures and disruptions in climatic patterns in the country, experts have told daily Hürriyet.

Climate change is poised to accelerate the transmission rates of infectious diseases, potentially triggering new outbreaks on a global scale.

In August, Türkiye confirmed six cases of West Nile virus in 2024. However, the number of infected individuals is estimated to range between 2,000 and 3,000 in Türkiye.

Professor Dr. Ahmet Özbek from Altınbaş University remarked that Türkiye has become increasingly vulnerable to vector-borne diseases, especially those transmitted by mosquitoes, as a direct consequence of the ongoing climate shifts.

The intensifying heat expedites the life cycle of vectors — organisms that transmit pathogens, he said, adding that diseases like West Nile virus, yellow fever, dengue and Zika, all spread via mosquitoes, could expand across wider regions.

Malaria and leishmaniasis, also vector-borne, are likely to become more prevalent, according to Özbek.

Furthermore, the rising levels of ultraviolet radiation compromise the skin’s immunity, weakening the body's primary defense line.

Tuberculosis, which remains the leading cause of infection-induced mortality, may grow deadlier under the effects of global warming.

Additionally, the increase in sea levels and surface temperatures facilitates the proliferation of Vibrio bacteria, potentially heightening the incidence of diseases such as cholera, he said.

Global warming also intensifies the spread of influenza outbreaks, with avian flu strains like H5N1 and H7N9 thriving in hot and humid climates.

Professor Dr. Sebahat Genç pointed to another looming threat, noting that deforestation has heightened the frequency of human-wildlife contact, which may open the floodgates to novel zoonotic outbreaks.

She recalled that the COVID-19 pandemic originated in a market in China that sold wild animal meat.

“We will witness these occurrences more frequently. Additionally, as warming trends push northward, diseases typical of tropical regions, such as malaria, Zika virus and West Nile virus, will increase in prevalence here,” she warned.

“Türkiye, typically characterized by a Mediterranean climate, is warming, and this will inevitably foster the proliferation of tropical diseases,” Genç noted.

A paper published approximately two years ago in the esteemed journal Nature posited that the future could see a significant rise in zoonotic virus transmissions to humans, particularly in densely populated regions of Asia and Africa.