Central Bank meets for rate decision this week

ISTANBUL

The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy (MPC) committee is set to meet on April 17, with most economists expecting the monetary authority to keep the policy rate unchanged.

In March, the bank slashed the one-week repo rate from 45 percent to 42.5 percent.

Amid the volatility in the local markets, triggered by the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the bank held an unscheduled MPC meeting where it decided to raise the overnight lending rate to 46 percent.

The bank is expected to keep the main policy rate, the one-week repo auction rate- on hold at 42.5 percent this week, according to a state-run Anadolu Agency survey of economists. Only two out of 21 economists polled anticipate a 350 basis points increase in the policy rate.

Economists at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley do not anticipate a rate cut at this week’s next policy meeting, while analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a report published on March 27 that they expected the Central Bank to opt for raising the repo rate by 350 bps.

According to the survey, economists expect the policy rate to be 34.5 percent at the end of 2025.

Also this week, on April 14, the Central Bank will unveil the balance of payments data for February.

Türkiye’s current account balance posted a deficit of $4.3 billion in February, according to the survey.

In January, the current account deficit was $3.8 billion, with the annualized gap amounting to $11.54 billion.

The government expects the current account deficit to be $28.6 billion, or 2 percent of the estimated GDP, this year.

Most of the economists surveyed forecast a current account deficit of $21.97 billion for 2025.