Businesses, experts more optimistic about inflation than consumers

ANKARA

Businesses appear to be more optimistic about the inflation outlook than households, a survey by the Central Bank has shown.

The real sector’s 12-month expectations declined by 1.2 points to 55 percent, while households’ expectations rose by 0.5 points to 72 percent in July.

Market participants’ inflation estimates also fell by 1.8 points to 30 percent, according to the bank’s Sectoral Inflation Expectations survey. Market participants include decision-makers and experts from the financial and real sectors.

The proportion of households expecting a fall in inflation in the next 12 months decreased by 4.2 points to 29.3 percent.

The percentage of households expecting consumer prices to increase more rapidly or at the same rate increased from 66.52 percent in June to 70.7 percent in July.

The percentage of households expecting consumer prices to stay about the same, fall or increase at a slower rate fell from 33.5 percent to 29.3 percent, showed the survey.

The annual inflation rate slowed from 75.45 percent in May to 71.6 percent in June with consumer prices advancing 1.64 percent monthly.

Leading indicators suggest that monthly inflation will rise temporarily in July due to adjustments in administered prices and taxes as well as supply-side factors in unprocessed food prices, the Central Bank said this week in a statement accompanying its interest rate decision.

The bank reiterated its warning that in addition to the high level of and the stickiness in services inflation, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks and food prices keep inflationary pressures alive.