Anatolian forests can withstand worst-case climate scenario: Study

ISTANBUL

The Anatolian region, encompassing a significant portion of Türkiye, can retain its forest potential even under the most pessimistic climate change scenarios, a newly published study has shown.

This finding hinges on the crucial condition of minimizing human impact and preserving mountainous regions that can serve as refugia against climate change impacts, according to the research led by Dr. Bikem Ekberzade from the Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences at Istanbul Technical University,

The study said that as temperatures rise, cold-adapted species will primarily migrate towards mountainous areas rather than northward.

Conducted through a series of models envisioning Anatolia as devoid of human presence and solely covered by forests, the research concluded that certain species, affected differently by changing climate conditions, will maintain their existence. Others will migrate to more suitable habitats within the Anatolian geography.

"Our simulation results show that regardless of how much temperatures increase or how precipitation patterns shift, Anatolia can preserve its forest potential until the end of the century," Ekberzade explained.

"The tendency of cold-adapted species to seek refuge in mountainous areas rather than migrating north underscores the critical importance of these regions as climate refugia," she noted.

The Hakkari Mountains, in particular, stand out as the southernmost point within the Anatolian Peninsula where these species can sustain themselves, the researcher said.

The protection of these areas is paramount for the survival of ecosystems increasingly exposed to the perils induced by climate change, Ekberzade pointed out.

In recent years, Türkiye has been undertaking nationwide tree-planting campaigns, introducing millions of saplings into the soil to safeguard its forests.

The Mediterranean country, facing progressively hotter climates, also engages in strenuous efforts to protect its forests from summer wildfires.

Most recently, a fire occurred in an archaeological site in the Aegean province of Çanakkale, resulting in the damage of 31 hectares, equivalent to 43 football fields.

The Agriculture and Forestry Ministry last week announced that in June, record-breaking temperatures across various cities in Türkiye have led to a fivefold increase in forest fires compared to last year.

According to measurements made with the Copernicus satellite monitoring system of the EU, with March, April and May being the hottest months all over the world, the spring of 2024 went down in history as the "hottest spring of all time."