2025 expected to bring rainfall, alleviate Türkiye’s drought crisis: Expert

İZMİR

Experts predict 2025 will be a year of significant rainfall, potentially alleviating Türkiye’s worsening drought crisis.

According to Doğan Yaşar, a member of the Turkish Academy of Sciences (TÜBA) Environment, Biodiversity and Climate Change Working Group, increased precipitation could restore key reservoirs such as the western province İzmir’s Tahtalı Dam, which currently faces critical water shortages.

“With decent rainfall, the dam’s water level could rise above 30 percent again, marking a singificant recovery,” he stated.

Tahtalı Dam, which supplies 30-35 percent of İzmir’s drinking water, is currently operating at just 11 percent capacity.

İzmir typically receives half its annual rainfall during December, January and February, with an average of 26 rainy days in these months. Last December, Tahtalı Dam reached 27.5 percent, increasing to 33 percent by April thanks to winter precipitation. However, this year’s levels have dropped drastically, standing at less than half of last year’s December levels.

Yaşar also noted the long-term consequences of over-reliance on underground water reserves. “Even in 2020, when Tahtalı Dam was 85 percent full, groundwater was heavily used,” he explained.

“[In the neighboring province of Manisa], wells have dropped from 40 meters to 450 meters, increasing energy consumption and costs. İzmir now has the most expensive water in Türkiye.”

İzmir uses approximately 600,000 cubic meters of water daily, yet when Tahtalı Dam is full, it can only sustain the city’s needs for up to two years without tapping alternative resources.

Yaşar called for more scientific water management, urging authorities to prioritize dam water usage over underground reserves. “İzmir is among the poorest regions in terms of water resources, with a per capita water potential of just 600 cubic meters annually. This figure is far below Türkiye’s average of 1,340 cubic meters and a sharp decline from the 4,500 cubic meters available in the 1960s.”

Istanbul is also currently grappling with a severe drought. Following a dry autumn and an exceptionally hot summer, the city’s reservoirs have reached critical lows. According to İSKİ data, the overall level in Istanbul’s dams has dropped to 28 percent.

The situation is especially dire at Alibey Dam, highlighting the extent of the crisis, with once-submerged areas now exposed. Vehicle tires discarded in the dam are visible, and some sections of the dam bed have turned green.

The drought should serve as a wake-up call to implement more sustainable practices, Yaşar emphasized.