Tourism, automotive sectors make exports smile

Though the data about June has not yet been published, the automotive export sales have pursued a positive trend as of the end of May; the rise in tourist numbers has also driven attention. Therefore, we can say that the automotive and tourism sectors have put a smile on the economy’s face.

It is an issue of concern what the data on June will show. While it is awaited that the inflation target is to be exceeded due to rates, we will soon see how the Gezi incidents that started in late May have affected tourism specifically. We are witnessing statements that it will be hard for the automotive export and total sales to outperform in the second half what they did in the first half.

In May 2013 the number of tourists coming to Turkey rose by 17.8 percent in comparison to the same month last year. Thereby, the number of tourists in the first five months of the year reached 10.48 million people, marking an 18.5 percent annual increase. Tourists coming from European Union countries, who made up 51 percent of the total tourist number in May, rose by 13 percent vis-à-vis the same month last year and gained speed in regard to the average of 10 percent annual increase during the first four months of the year. As the share of the tourists coming from Russia in May stood at 16 percent of the sum, the acceleration slowed down and remained at 22 percent, which is not higher than the average of the first four months of 2013. Though the tourist figures from the West Asia group (Syria and Iraq as the forerunners), which hold 6 percent of the sum, have slowed down, it has kept increasing with 64 percent. While the tourists coming from South Asia (initially Iran) had a share of 4 percent of the total tourist numbers, the rise accelerated limitedly by 14 percent.

Growth in accordance to domestic demand

Though there has been some progress in export performance, according to the foreign trade statistics from May, it is still not enough. The annual growth (in exports) in the April-May period advanced slightly, by 0.2 percent, after a 5.3 percent increase in the first quarter, together with the uncertainty about global growth. About the details of the export sectors, there is a clear rise that speeds up to 17 percent on an annual basis in the exports of motor land vehicles, which have a high rate of exports to EU countries. When we look at the export rise by excluding private car exports, which showed a 14 percent annual increase in the April-May period, exports other than automobile exports, which rose 5 percent annually in the first quarter, narrowed by 0.4 percent on an annual basis within the April-May period. On the other hand, annual increases during the first quarter in the textile and clothing sectors, which are among the sectors with a high export rate to EU countries, were preserved.

“The order index for the forthcoming three months,” which stood under the real sector confidence index in June, has receded especially due to domestic market orders. The contribution of domestic demand to the 3 percent annual growth in the first quarter was 3.05 points, while the contribution of foreign demand has experienced a slight minus with 0.05 points. The domestic demand contribution, which was foreseen to grow all through 2013, and the weakening foreign demand confirm the order expectations on a quarterly basis.